Will Carbon Credits be Used When There’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel?

The aviation industry is under increasing pressure to reduce its carbon footprint. More and more regulatory emission programs are in development at both the national and state levels. Even the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has a commitment and pathway underway for guiding the industry to net zero emissions by 2050. Developing a comprehensive and defensible sustainability program that addresses either voluntary or regulatory commitments is quickly moving to a must-have for many flight departments and aircraft operators around the world. The two most common tools found in the arsenal to address climate change, industry goals, and regulatory obligations are Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and carbon credits. SAF shows tremendous promise as an in-sector solution to help reduce lifecycle emissions. However, even in a world with ample SAF supply, it alone isn’t a complete solution. This is where carbon credits come in.

Carbon credits can trace their inception back to 1997, and the UN’s Kyoto Protocol. Today, there are a variety of projects that offer carbon credits with various costs associated with them. This diversity allows operators to find the right project, or a mix of projects, that fits their budget. Carbon credits provide an immediate impact on the environment since the project is third-party verified of a permanent carbon reduction or avoidance. Some common carbon offset projects include renewable energy, reforestation or forestry protection, and sustainable agriculture. There are also some cutting-edge projects that offer unique approaches to mitigate environmental impacts or create carbon removals, such as direct air capture of greenhouse gases and mineralizing carbon to turn into artificial coral reefs.

As we scale up SAF production, we are going to need a diverse array of feedstocks, and while many have high emission reductions of up to 80-90%, they are not 100% reductions. There will be some feedstocks that are fully carbon neutral or even carbon negative, but many types of SAF will still have residual emissions. Significant emission reductions through SAF should be prioritized, and carbon offsets or carbon removals can be combined to address the residual emissions that may exist.

A considerable benefit to carbon credits is the operator’s ability to offset 100% of both carbon and non-carbon emissions associated with a flight. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is just one of the many components of jet exhaust. Based on NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory study, carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for some 300 - 1,000 years. CO2, however, only accounts for one-third of the impact of flying. The remaining two-thirds of impacts come from shorter-term, non-CO2 warming pollutants in aviation, such as water vapor, aerosols, and nitrous oxides. These additional pollutants can remain in our atmosphere for a few hours or even a few decades, but higher concentrations play a significant role in climate change. The non-CO2 emissions of gases and aerosol particles affect atmospheric composition and cloudiness, compounding the overall climate impact of the sector’s CO2 emissions. SAF is expected to reduce some of the non-CO2 impacts, such as reducing contrail persistence and particulates, but will not fully reduce others, like nitrous oxides. Achieving a truly emission-neutral goal cannot be done using SAF alone. Therefore, until new technology can help remove nitrous oxide emissions, operators can use offsets to counter the carbon impacts of those emissions.

Another attribute of carbon offset projects is their ability to address multiple initiatives in an operator’s Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) program. The UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs established 17 Sustainable Development Goals; these goals were established to “recognize that ending poverty and other deprivations must go hand-in-hand with strategies that improve health and education, reduce inequality, and spur economic growth – all while tackling climate change and working to preserve our oceans and forests.” A properly curated portfolio of carbon credits can add social and communal benefits and help an operator achieve its voluntary sustainability goals in addition to ESG obligations that the organization might have.

Sustainable aviation fuel is a long-term alternative to traditional fossil fuels that will likely overcome its limited supply and cost challenges in the future, but carbon offsets will offer a key bridging mechanism for years to come. Whether addressing residual emissions from the use of SAF or helping address the impact of non-CO2 emissions, offsets can make sure that critical parts of an operator’s footprint are not forgotten. Additionally, offsets have social co-benefits and are available today that can help demonstrate attention to broader ESG goals and represent action today. The projects that carbon credits support also offer a wider range of initiatives and help operators demonstrate their commitment not only to environmental sustainability but other key challenges that the world faces. Offsets and carbon removals will be another arrow in the quiver of sustainability tools we use to help operators achieve and improve their sustainability programs.